I honestly can't see this happening in the near future. I think people are much more tied into having their physical box in front of them with their data and programs on.

isn´t this only a matter of generation change. Once the younger generation grow up by using the download and virtual environment, box products will no longer be relevant..

This will also change the classical distribution and retail market landscape.

Shelf space for software is already shrinking rapidly in the retail.

Maybe 10 years+ but I don't think the market is run by the people to whom cloud computing would be second nature. You need a fundamental shift in how much people care about physically owning their software and data. I can't see big business going this way or to be fair everywhere would use Citrix and dumb terminals at a fraction of the cost of full PC's. When I worked in desktop support I now the network team had enough trouble trying to make sure people saved work onto the network drives instead of locally!

Just don't see it as being the big turning point in how we all work. It may be a useful tool but I can't see it replacing the standard laptop/PC combination for a long while yet.

Similar words were said when Internet started web shops mid 90´s.. The technology is moving almost with light speed.. it won´t take 10 years to turn around the standard computing environment to Avatars. 

I wish to read other people´s mind about this subject..

The more things change; the more things stay the same. :)

So sadly I am old enough to know the term "central computing" vs. "distributed computing". These are the terms old timers used to describe min/main frame computers and user farms vs. distributed computing on microcomputers.

The idea then was that the central computer systems were bad as users could not count on security or availability of the system. They had to worry about the decisions MIS (then the name for IT) would make about the system and how it treated the user's data.

Then the microcomputer came along and everyone went "Yaay!" and en-mass cried "freedom!" and ran to their individual PCs. They were no longer slaved to the the MIS department and their decisions about their data and the programs available.

Now today we talk about cloud computing as if it is new. The only difference is that we are not talking about terminals connected to a mainframe but instead we are talking about an access point (choose your device, phone, iPad or PC) and a connection to a central server.

What is new here?

I claim it is the same thing.. the only difference is that the cloud is EVEN bigger and even harder to control or influence. You can't run down to the MIS manager and say "Give me my data or give me death!" like you could in the old days. Instead you can send email to Google support and wait.

So.. no.. cloud computing will never take over. It has its place but like all things there are no absolutes.

At least that is my opinion.

-mark=

I used to in Video / Dvd distribution. Has anyone seen what has become of your local neighborhood video store. The internet has changed the way people get their intertainment. I see the same happening for the software industry.

I agree with Ross... The way the software is distributed and used will change dramatically in the future..

I don't believe we have to wait 10 years for the Cloud computing to be adopted by companies (and consumers). I can see cost saving oprtunities for companies. e.g:

- Peak consumption (online Cloud applications, data, web) over a small period of time (special events) where companies would have to invest a lot (IT cost) to absorbe this peak. Cloud (Google app/ Amazon...) would allow them to pay only for what they use.

- Smaller companies to replace their inhouse IT infrastructure with online solutions (Email, file storage, accounting app, intranet...)

- Consumer wants to access their data/applications from anything (All their PCs, Phone, Game pad, iXXXX, TV) and everywhere (Hotel, train, car, home...)

Howver bandwith and cost for High speed internet (at least in several countries) can slow down the adoption.

Privacy seems might be a blocker for some companies that have invest $ in trying to protect their data and might not be ready the post (give) them to Google wihtout controling how has access to them and where there are stored.

Mark has a good point with the Mainframe computers with Terminals.

I come from this decade (late 70´s and the beginning of the PCs in 80´s)  but I also now that there are tons of differences between cloud computing and old Mainframe computing. I used to punch cards and run JES2 at IBM 4341..

That is if you have and internet connection but...

Now, in the poor countries, don´t have internet the 90% of the habitants, maybe in 10 years are only the 50% but, it´s impossible to have a working computer if you don´t have installed the software, I think it´s more for companies than individual´s.